The Race to Regionals: The Final Weekend

As we head into "Championship Week" and the final weekend of competition, the regional races are coming down to the wire. At stake this weekend are one of 36 post season slots, and the Regional Seeds. As always, these coveted spots in the post season are earned through the Regional Qualifying Score (RQS). This season, the RQS is determined by the following formula: take the team's top three AWAY scores, take the top three OTHER (home or away) scores, throw OUT the HIGHEST, and AVERAGE the remaining five.

The teams are ranked via the RQS. The Top 18 teams are considered Regional Seeds, and are assigned into a pool of teams to be distributed (sent) across the six Regional Sites. The Regional fields are made up of three Seeds, plus the three teams from that Region with the highest RQS averages (and not in the Top 18). The Regional Seeds are assigned to each Region by the NCAA Committee. The Committee starts by "pairing" the teams into ranked trios:

A team that is a Seed and is also a Regional Host will not be sent out of its home Region. The Top 18 Host serves to "anchor" the trio in that Region. In the case that more than one of the teams in the trio is a Host, the Committee will look to break up the lower ranked host Seed with an adjacent non-Host team. Trios with no Host team to anchor the group will be placed in the closest Regional by geographical proximity to the highest Seeded team. The Committee also reserves the right to break up the groups differently if the placement creates clusters of teams from one Region or Conference. You can read more about this criteria in the NCAA Handbook (Link to Handbook: Adobe Acrobat File).

The Top 18 teams, or Seeds, not only determine the competitive fields at Regionals, they even help determine the other teams that qualifies to Regionals. Teams that are battling for spots in the Top 18 have fellow teams in their Region cheering them on this weekend; every team that qualifies in the Top 18 effectively "creates" a spot for another team from the Region in the Regional. The exact placement of the teams also help solidify the makeup of the Regional. Conventional wisdom says that the "toughest" regionals are those with Hosts in places 7 to 12 and with non-seeded teams in places 18-25. This situation could evolve this weekend.

Let's take a look at the Top 25, their current RQS, and their maximum possible tally after this weekend (Regional Host have an asterisk).:

^Note: BYU's Monday night meet raised their RQS to 196.01, or 20th place.

West: In the all important 18th Seed, California is clinging to the 18th Seed, spelling good news for San Jose State and Cal State Fullerton. Those two teams are battling for the #2/#3 non-Seed slots in the West Region. The other interesting placement is #15 Washington, which can change the entire face of the seeding system depending on their score this weekend. They could end up as high as 10th or as low as 18th. If #1 UCLA also gets placed here, this could be an unpleasant draw for the other remaining Seed.

North Central: Its also still possible that Cal and Arizona could bump out Iowa from the Top 18, leaving Denver, Minnesota and BYU to battle for the last two slots from the North Central Regional. Hanging on the bubble are Utah State and SUU. After Monday's meet, BYU pulled out of reach of USU. However, USU and SUU will battle for a potential slot if BYU can move into the Top 18. With host Utah currently lurking at #9 and such a deep field, this may turn out to be the toughest draw for any pair of remaining Seeds.

South Central: Arizona is still looking to bump off California, and likely have the young GymHawgs of Arkansas cheering them on. Arkansas is on the bubble for Regionals, and is actively chasing a UIC for a slot in one of the only "open" Regional sites. Host Missouri will qualify to Regionals, but will not be a Seed.

Central: Host Bama looks to be joined by Kent State, Central Michigan and Michigan State. Who will join them is still fully in doubt, as the natural grouping for the Regional (Florida, Iowa) could very well change by next week. All three teams have a great deal of fluidity left in their RQS standing, with tight races for each team.

North East: Host Michigan could end up as low as 11th (tie), but its the only Seeded team in the Region, limiting the postseason opportunities in this Region. Penn State, New Hampshire and Pittsburgh look to challenge the Seeds in this Region. Because of host Michigan with its loads of big meet experience and a much improved Penn State team, this Region will also be a tough draw for any Seed.

South East: Although Host UGA could drop to as low as 8th, it certainly looks to drop its lowest away score to raise its RQS this weekend. As always, it's a down to the wire race in this Region. This year the race yields just 0.21 points separating the RQS scores of UNC, Maryland and Towson. The last two teams are virtually tied, making the EAGL Championship especially meaningful. WVU is also not out of the running, with a maximum possible RQS within range. Maryland is in control of their destiny, as they can outpace the other contender's maximum scores.

The remainder of the Top 18 have now secured seeds.