The Race to Regionals: The Final Weekend

As we head into "Championship Week" and the final weekend of competition, the regional races are coming down to the wire. At stake this weekend are one of 36 post season slots, and the Regional Seeds. As always, these coveted spots in the post season are earned through the Regional Qualifying Score (RQS). This season, the RQS is determined by the following formula: take the team's top three AWAY scores, take the top three OTHER (home or away) scores, throw OUT the HIGHEST, and AVERAGE the remaining five.

The teams are ranked via the RQS. The Top 18 teams are considered Regional Seeds, and are assigned into a pool of teams to be distributed (sent) across the six Regional Sites. The Regional fields are made up of three Seeds, plus the three teams from that Region with the highest RQS averages (and not in the Top 18). The Regional Seeds are assigned to each Region by the NCAA Committee. The Committee starts by "pairing" the teams into ranked trios:

A team that is a Seed and is also a Regional Host will not be sent out of its home Region. The Top 18 Host serves to "anchor" the trio in that Region. In the case that more than one of the teams in the trio is a Host, the Committee will look to break up the lower ranked host Seed with an adjacent non-Host team. Trios with no Host team to anchor the group will be placed in the closest Regional by geographical proximity to the highest Seeded team. The Committee also reserves the right to break up the groups differently if the placement creates clusters of teams from one Region or Conference. You can read more about this criteria in the NCAA Handbook (Link to Handbook: Adobe Acrobat File).

The Top 18 teams, or Seeds, not only determine the competitive fields at Regionals, they even help determine the other teams that qualifies to Regionals. Teams that are battling for spots in the Top 18 have fellow teams in their Region cheering them on this weekend; every team that qualifies in the Top 18 effectively "creates" a spot for another team from the Region in the Regional. The exact placement of the teams also help solidify the makeup of the Regional. Conventional wisdom says that the "toughest" regionals are those with Hosts in places 7 to 12 and with non-seeded teams in places 18-25. This situation could evolve this weekend.

Let's take a look at the Top 25, their current RQS, and their maximum possible tally after this weekend (Regional Hosts are italicized):

*Note: BYU's and Denver's Monday night meets raised their RQS scores.

West:  Host Oregon State at #10 serves to anchor a matching pair in this region.  The Beavers, along with UCLA, Stanford, and Washington have all locked up Top 18 seeds.  UCLA has clinched the #1 slot, but could possibly be sent out of the region, depending on how the seeds end up.  There is considerable volatility around the #12 seed, making the final split of the teams a bit uncertain.  California and Boise State have two regional slots clinched for Oregon State, but the third slot is very much in doubt.  Cal State Fullerton and San Jose State are virtually tied for the final slot, and Sacramento State is still mathematically in the race.  Cal State Fullerton holds the edge however, as they are counting a 192.05 in their RQS.      

North Central:  Denver's 197.1 on Monday, March 15th (after the calculation of the Rankings) has temporarily hoisted them into the #14 slot and has secured an all important Regional Seed.  As a Host Team, the Pioneers have gained an important advantage by reducing the number of seeded teams at their Regional.  This is on top of the advantage they gain from the altitude adjustment their competitors must face in Denver.  DU is joined by fellow seeds Utah, Iowa State and BYU.  BYU, with a strong late season push, has now risen to the #7 position after their Monday night meet.  Iowa is now in the hot seat at #18, the last seed team.  They will look to fend off a number of teams, including Michigan of the current "seed-less" NE Region and ASU.  Minnesota and Southern Utah currently hold two spots in the Regional, but Utah State is looking for Iowa to hold its spot in the Top 18.  USU can also still catch SUU for the final spot, though SUU holds a mathematical advantage.

South Central: Arizona has not yet clinched a Top 18 seed, and looks to do well enough at the Pac-10 Championships (at home) to secure their host position in the South Central.  OU and Missouri are in a similar position, as neither team has secured a Regional slot.  The super close Region looks to be undecided to the finish, with only Nebraska having secured a slot at this time.  Several teams have a chance at dislodging some of these teams, one of them being fellow Regional competitor Arizona State.  ASU has a chance to move into the Top 18 with a good performance at the Pac-10 Conference Championships.  With a relatively low 194.25 counting score in their RQS and a high theoretical Max RQS, the ASU team can make a major move up the ranks.  Thus, Arkansas looks to make Regionals in just their second year as a team, and Illinois is seeking to secure the final Regional invite.  Waiting in the wings are Illinois-Chicago (which can still just catch Illinois) and Southeast Missouri, battling for the 8th rank in the Region.

Central: Central Region host LSU looks for a return trip to Nationals, and ideally would like to secure a Top 6 slot.  LSU could finish as high as 3rd or as low as 9th.  Bama has also secured a Regional seed, but those two are the only qualifiers from this Region.  Auburn, Michigan State, and Kent State have locked up the remaining three seeds, after Denver's Monday night performance eliminated the last chance Auburn had to move into the Top 18.  As the current rankings stand, a possible UF-LSU matchup in the Region could produce another edition of an exciting rivalry.

North East: The NE Region is anxiously looking for Michigan to move up and claim a spot in the Top 18.  However, Michigan's best chance of securing a spot will come directly in the Big 10 Championship, as they seek to outduel Iowa for the last spot, while both teams look to avoid being passed by WVU and ASU.  Host Penn State has not yet qualified for their own Regional, and looks to hold off both Pitt and New Hampshire.  If Michigan is unable to pull into the Top 18, then it will come down to a tight battle between these three teams.  Despite their current rankings, the maximum RQS of each team is as follows:  PSU 195.915, UNH 195.835 and Pitt 195.825.

South East:  Georgia, Florida and UNC have locked up Top 18 Seeds, and with a late season push, West Virginia is still in the race for a fourth seed from the Region.  Host NC State looks to have secured a slot in the Regional.  Watching these developments carefully will be Maryland and GWU.  These two teams are once again in a tight race for Regional slots, and will likely be rooting for the Mountaineers to pull into the Top 18.  WVU must also watch to avoid being passed by ASU.  Maryland, with a high score of 197.375, can still hit a 196.05 RQS.  GWU's maximum, 195.595, means while they are still mathematically in the race, they are at a disadvantage.