The Race to Regionals:  February 20th, 2007

In the first week of RQS rankings, #1 Florida and #2 Georgia are in a dead heat for the top spot, 197.115 to 197.08.  Since Florida has an away meet this weekend (lowest away score 196.55), while Georgia is at home (lowest home score 197.25), expect to see Florida retain the lead in next week’s rankings.  The following week could prove more interesting, when Georgia has a chance to rid itself of its lowest away score, a 196.1.  Familiar faces round out the rest of the top six, including #3 Stanford, which is having a remarkable season despite injuries to some top athletes.  #4 Alabama and #5 Utah are struggling with inconsistency but have the depth and talent to challenge in the postseason.  Perennial power UCLA, #6, is dealing with both injuries and inconsistency this year.

Notably absent from the rankings this week are those teams without enough meets to have an RQS.  Michigan will likely be in the top ten in coming weeks, and Arizona State and Michigan State will be fighting for spots in the top eighteen, which qualify for seeded spots to Regionals.

An analysis of the potential individual qualifiers to Regionals will begin with the March 5 rankings.

Central Region

Seeded teams:

#4 Alabama
#9 LSU
#12 Auburn
#18 Ohio State

Unseeded teams currently in position to qualify to Regionals:

#19 Kentucky (unofficial – Troester does not have RQS calculated, possibly due to date entry error for most recent meet.)
#23 Kent State
#29 Central Michigan

Next in line:

#33 Western Michigan (unofficial – Troester does not have RQS calculated, due to lack of data for the past two meets.  This data was available on team website.)
#39 Bowling Green

Notably missing due to lack of RQS: Michigan State and Eastern Michigan, which were #18 and #34, respectively, in last week's rankings according to season average.

This is a region in which things may remain uncertain until the end of the season, thanks to having three teams right on the bubble of the top eighteen.  Of the three, Michigan State has demonstrated the highest scoring ability, with a 196.35 home score.  Ohio State (194.14) has a good mix of home and away scores and room for improvement in its counting scores without having a single high or low score that particularly stands out.  Kentucky (193.82) has a very tight range of counting scores, which typically makes it harder for a team to move up, but having six remaining away meets could overcome that disadvantage.  

Currently, the competition between the next three teams is not close: Kent State (193.425), Central Michigan (192.28), and Western Michigan (190.635).  However, Eastern Michigan (only four meets thus far) may mix things up.  Regardless, all of these teams are facing a season in which a large part of their destinies will be determined by how many teams from their region make the top eighteen.  These teams could be fighting for as many as three Regionals berths or for none.

North Central Region

Seeded teams:

#5 Utah
#10 Iowa State
#11 Denver

Unseeded teams currently in position to qualify for Regionals:

#19 Brigham Young
#21 Iowa
#25 Utah State

Next in line:

#26 Minnesota
#36 Southern Utah

This is a deep region, with eight teams in the top 36.  Unfortunately, not enough of those teams are in the top eighteen to prevent someone from being left out of Regionals.  Utah, Iowa State, and Denver appear fairly solidly placed in the top eighteen, while Brigham Young (193.79) and Iowa (193.575) are fighting to break in.  Utah State (193.085) and Minnesota (192.995) are currently in a close race for the last spot to Regionals.

Northeast Region

Seeded teams:

#16 Penn State

Unseeded teams currently in position to qualify for Regionals:

#33 New Hampshire
#40 Rutgers
#44 Penn

Next in line:

#46 Cornell
#47 Yale

Notably missing due to lack of RQS: Michigan and Pittsburgh, which were #9 and #36, respectively, in last week’s rankings according to season average.  

The Regionals selections for this region may well be identical to last year’s, with Michigan and Penn State in seeded berths and New Hampshire (191.63), Pittsburgh, and Rutgers (190.01) in the unseeded berths.  At more than three and a half points, the RQS difference between #40 Rutgers and #44 Penn (186.635) is larger than one might guess from the difference in their rankings.

From the scores thus far in the season, Pittsburgh and New Hampshire appear securely ahead of Rutgers, so Rutgers will have to keep an eye on whether Penn State is able to hang onto its spot in the top eighteen.  If not, Rutgers will most likely be the odd man out.

South Central Region

Seeded teams:

#7 Oklahoma
#8 Nebraska
#13 Arizona
#14 Arkansas
#17 Missouri

Unseeded teams currently in position to qualify to Regionals:

#24 Illinois-Champaign
#31 Southeast Missouri
#41 Illinois-Chicago

Next in line:

No other teams have RQS.

Notably missing due to lack of RQS: Arizona State and Northern Illinois, which were #17 and #49, respectively, in last week’s rankings according to season average.  

This is the deepest of all regions with four to six teams that will be seeded in the top eighteen at Regionals.  It is interesting to note that Arizona State has a lighter schedule than most teams, with only four meets to this point and ten total regular season meets, including Pac-10 Championships.  This could prove to hurt them in the end, when they are able to drop fewer scores and have fewer opportunities to score big.

Illinois-Champaign (193.255) is well ahead of Southeast Missouri (191.8), and should feel fairly secure in its Regionals berth.  Illinois-Chicago (189.82) is counting a huge range of scores, from 187.9 to 195.35, so it does have quite a bit of room for RQS improvement.   

Southeast Region

Seeded teams:

#1 Florida
#2 Georgia

Unseeded teams currently in position to qualify to Regionals:

#20 West Virginia
#21 North Carolina State
#27 North Carolina

Next in line:

#32 Maryland
#37 George Washington

This situation in this region looks very similar to the way last season ended, with the same teams in seeded and unseeded spots.  Particularly considering the teams such as Michigan, Kentucky, and Arizona State that are not included in this week’s rankings, West Virginia (193.685) and North Carolina State (192.56) have only outside shots at breaking into the top eighteen.  

Maryland (191.79) is currently counting a 189.375 in its RQS, and replacing that score could be a boost in the attempt to catch North Carolina (192.56).  North Carolina, however, has its own unusually low score, a 190.65, that it is seeking to replace.

West Region

Seeded teams:

#3 Stanford
#6 UCLA
#15 Oregon State

Unseeded teams currently in position to qualify to Regionals:

#28 Washington
#30 Sacramento State
#34 San Jose State

Next in line:

#35 Boise State
#53 Seattle-Pacific

Notably missing due to lack of RQS: California and Cal State-Fullerton, which were #45 and #48, respectively, in last week’s rankings according to season average.  

The team to watch in this region is Oregon State, which will determine whether two or three of the next cluster of teams makes it to Regionals: Washington (192.525), Sacramento State (192.005), San Jose State (191.615), and Boise State (191.555).  Watch for Washington to rise in the rankings when it is able to replace its 188.175, which is 4.825 points lower than the next lowest score.  Sacramento State, on the other hand, has a tight range of scores that could keep it treading water.  Likewise, San Jose State appears to have more mobility than Boise State.