Strength of Schedule Analysis


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Strength of Schedule Analysis: 2008

by Bill Donaldson

SCHEDULE DIFFICULTY INDEX FOR TOP 10 TEAMS IN THE 2008 COACHES PRE-SEASON POLL

Difficulty Rank	Team	Poll Rank	Schedule Difficulty Index (SDI)
1	Alabama	6	57
2	Georgia	10	53
3	LSU	1	51
4	UCLA	4	41
5(t)	Florida	2	40
5(t)	Stanford	5	40
7	Utah	3	32
8	Michigan	9	22
9	Nebraska	7	20
10	Oklahoma	8	9

As in past years, strength of schedule is influenced significantly by conference affiliation. The Southeastern Conference has four teams in the top 10, and they are ranked 1,2,3, and a tie for 5 in strength of schedule. The schedule difficulty index is calculated by awarding 10 points for scheduling the number one team in the Pre-Season Coaches’ poll, 9 points for scheduling number 2,etc., down to 1 point for number 10. No points are awarded for scheduling teams ranked below 10 and no schedule strength is calculated for teams ranked below 10.

So why bother to calculate schedule strength? Unlike the BCS in football, schedule strength in gymnastics has no impact on winning a national championship. Also unlike many other sports, won/loss records during the regular season have no impact on winning championships. For these reasons nearly every team wants to schedule the best teams it can attract, because fans like to watch good gymnasts. But fans also like to win. As important as absolute scores are in reaching Regional Championships, the relative scores in a meet are what excite the fans. Most fans had rather win a meet with a modest score over a highly ranked team because the highly ranked team counted two falls to their team’s none than to score their season high score and lose to the opponent. And when sports writers cover meets, they frequently post the season won/loss records for the teams — for example, Alabama (6-0) versus Auburn (4-2).

Of course only teams that win the NCAA National Championship can go undefeated, and only four teams have this distinction. Of the four, only Georgia has gone undefeated (1993, 1998, 1999, and 2006). Coach Yoculan seems determined to subject her team to the ultimate test in 2008, scheduling number 3, Utah; number 5, Stanford; and number 2, Florida in AWAY MEETS for the first three meets of the season. Conversely, at Oklahoma (number 8 in the coaches’ poll) Coach Kindler meets only Nebraska (number 7) twice and LSU (number 10) among the top 10. It should be noted, however, that she meets 7 teams among the top 25 — no walk in the park. On the basis of the 25-year history of NCAA women’s gymnastics, the chances are about 1 in 6 that a team will go undefeated in 2008. Strength of schedule on the regular season IS a factor in this objective.

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