Saturday, 01 January 2011 14:51

Strength of Schedule Analysis: 2011

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We've brought back the strength of schedule analysis for 2011.  Each year, we've calculated the relative strength of the schedule (relative schedule difficulty) for the Top 10 Teams, as determined by the Preseason Coaches' Poll.  Read on to find out who has the toughest schedule. 

For 2011, we've made a slight change.  The schedule difficulty index (strength of schedule) was calculated by awarding 12 points for scheduling the number one team in the pre-season coaches' poll, 11 points for scheduling number two, down to one point for number 12.  No points are awarded for scheduling teams ranked below 12 and in Table 1 we've only included those teams that are currently ranked in the Top Ten.  We've also added a column to track the number of teams they will face in the Preseason Top 25.   

 

Table 1:  Relative Schedule Difficulty for the Top 10 Ranked Teams

Difficulty Rank

Team

Poll Rank

Schedule Difficulty Index
(SDI)

# in Top 25

1

Oregon State

8

87

19

2

Stanford

6

83

21

3

Georgia

7

72

17

4

UCLA

1

69

20

5

Nebraska

10

59

17

6

Florida

3

51

15

7

Utah

5

47

9

8

Alabama

2

46

18

9

Michigan

9

44

11

10

Oklahoma

4

17

12

So what propelled Oregon State to the top spot?  Well, our ranking methodology is admittedly biased to teams that hold conference affiliations and schedule more meets with more than one opponent.  Some teams like Utah do not fare well in this ranking as they have no conference affiliation and they prefer to schedule dual meets.  (That will of course change as Utah joins the Pac-10).  The conference affiliation is a double edge sword -- although it means the teams will meet in the conference meet, it also means annual obligations to meet conference opponents on a regular basis.  For the Pac-10 teams, the new Pac-10 Preview event in early January provides a double benefit.  Teams like Stanford, Oregon State, and UCLA repeatedly meet during the season. 

Unlike some sports, in which competing against a physically stronger team can increase the likelihood of injuries, there are few reasons for a gymnastics team not to want to develop the strongest schedule available.  Attendance, in general, is related to strength of schedule, and the national rankings are not based on won-loss records.  But as it relates to scores, the results can be mixed.  The extra pressure on the athletes combined with a potentially higher level of scrutiny may produce lower scores.  We've noticed anecdotally that high caliber meets, in addition to those in large population centers, tend to draw a higher percentage of Brevet and National rated judges.  But all in all, the pros outweighs the cons.  Competing in front of large, vocal crowds or in large multi-round conference meets with a high caliber of judging helps prepare those teams for the National Championship and Regional meets.

The ranking in Table 1 just focused on the relative position of the Top 10 teams.  What happens when we extend the analysis to the Top 25 teams?  Well the two big conferences dominate, with the lower rated teams from the Pac-10 and SEC entering into the top ten standings.  The top two remain the same, but LSU jumps to the third spot.

 Table 2:  Strength of Schedule for the Top 25 Teams

Difficulty Rank

Team

Poll Rank

Schedule Difficulty Index
(SDI)

1

Oregon State

8

87

2

Stanford

6

83

3

LSU

12

78

4

Georgia

7

72

5

Arizona State

25

71

6

Washington

21

70

7

UCLA

1

69

8

Arizona

19

67

9

Arkansas

11

65

10

Auburn

15

60

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