Friday, 23 March 2012 21:55

Race to the Regionals: The Final Week (Updated 3/23)

We are entering into our final weekend of competition, and the Race to the Regionals is heating up!  Teams are chasing one of 36 spots available in post-season competition.

The women's teams are ranked using their Regional Qualifying Score, or RQS. This score is calculated by taking the team's top three AWAY scores, then taking the next three highest OTHER scores, throwing out the HIGH, and averaging the rest. With just one meet remaining, this maximum score is what determines the school's maximum possible RQS.

So why is the Top 36 so critical? Well these top 36 teams qualify to one of six Regionals. The top two from each Regional will then qualify to Nationals. Right now, North Carolina is on the "bubble" in 36th place. But, they are just one of several teams with a shot of making the Top 36. WMU, CMU, Bridgeport and SUU all still have a mathematical shot at surpassing UNC. In fact, BYU, UNH, San Jose State and Maryland are also still at risk of not making the Regional meet.

However, BYU, UNH, SJSU, Maryland and UNC are all in control of their own destinies. If they post a high enough score this weekend, they cannot be passed by WMU, CMU, Bridgeport, or SUU. Of these teams in the bubble region, UNC has the lowest score counting in their average. Thus, they are at an advantage in increasing their RQS score and can move "out of reach" of the three challengers by posting a 194.65.

Also critical is the Top 18. The Top 18 teams are seeded into each of the six regions via "trios" of teams groups according to their ranking: 1-12-13, 2-11-14, 3-10-15, 4-9-16, 5-8-17, 6-7-18. If a host team is part of the "trio", the entire "trio" is considered "anchored" to that Region and will be assigned to that Regional competition site. If there are two hosts in the "trio", the "trio" is broken up and split with the nearest available "trio", with the advantage going to the "trio" containing the highest ranked team. If there is no host in the "trio", the "trio" is placed in accordance with geographical proximity of the highest ranked team. The remaining Regional fields are placed with teams ranked 19-36, with attention avoided to place too many teams from the same conference or Region in the same Regional.

The Regional hosts are Arkansas, Auburn, Illinois, NC State, Utah and Washington.

Of the challengers to the Top 18, Missouri, NC State, Michigan and Washington all still have a mathematical shot at finishing in the Top 18. We'll be keeping an eye on hosts NC State and Washington, because if either host moves into the Top 18, the expected seedings into the Regionals may be impacted. NC State has the best shot of the two, and they could finish as high as 16th. Minnesota, Arizona and DU are still at risk of dropping out of the Top 18 with a strong performance from the challengers and a sub-par performance this weekend.

Currently, Florida has a stranglehold on the top spot, and only Bama and UCLA can surpass them.

We've also calculated an "away" average by averaging the top three away marks for each school. We then averaged the three "other" scores used to calculated the RQS, and then subtracted the result. Frequently, teams perform and score better at home, for a variety of reasons. The "away average" gives an idea of how these teams might fare on the road. You will notice that several teams have a delta of 0.98 points or better between their "away average" and their "other average" (Utah, Ohio State, NC State, Kent State and UNH). Some teams like NU, OU, Stanford, PSU, Minnesota and Michigan (and others) have higher "away averages" than "other averages".

Traditionally, the third seed (the lowest seed in the "trio") is regarded as the strongest challenger. That may not be entirely true anymore, due to the increasing parity in the NCAA. The gap between places 13 and 24 in skill level, execution and scoring ability is not as great as it has been in the past. An aging code that was already designed to increase parity is also contributing to this trend. Thus, the #4 seeds that also serve as hosts (currently NC State, Washington and Illinois) will also be in the mix to challenge the Top Two seeds at Regionals.

Rank Team High Score Min Score RQS Max RQS Remaining Meet Away Average Delta
1 Florida 197.9 196.9 197.395 197.595 A 197.1167 0.725
2 OU 197.45 197.2 197.31 197.36 H 197.425 -0.18333
3 Bama 197.725 196.325 197.155 197.435 A 196.8333 0.833333
4 UCLA 198.05 196.775 197.14 197.395 A 196.8667 0.85
5 UGA 197.7 196.575 196.995 197.22 A 196.7833 0.658333
6 NU 197.6 196.75 196.96 197.13 A 197.15 -0.16667
7 Utah 197.55 197.4 196.705 196.735 H 196.225 1.241667
8 LSU 196.85 196.325 196.55 196.655 A 196.5417 0.116667
9 Oregon St 197.4 195.975 196.55 196.835 A 196.5667 0.25
10 Arkansas 197.225 196.125 196.545 196.765 A 196.425 0.466667
11 Stanford 196.575 196.1 196.315 196.41 A 196.4333 -0.15
12 PSU 196.65 196 196.23 196.36 A 196.4 -0.2
13 Ohio State 197.625 195.575 196.115 196.525 A 195.65 1.433333
14 Boise St 196.85 196.125 196.055 DONE   196.2083 -0.04167
15 AU 196.875 195.15 195.965 196.31 A 195.625 0.983333
16 Minnesota 196.25 195.425 195.88 196.045 A 195.9833 -0.08333
17 Arizona 196.525 195.15 195.87 196.145 A 195.725 0.508333
18 DU 196.725 195.225 195.865 196.165 A 195.575 0.866667
19 Missouri 196.375 195.525 195.825 195.995 A 195.5917 0.65
20 NC State 196.775 195.225 195.715 196.025 A 195.4 0.983333
21 Michigan 196.3 195.3 195.71 195.91 A 196.0083 -0.4
22 Washington 196.35 194.925 195.595 195.88 A 195.6333 0.175
23 Illinois 196.15 195.1 195.545 195.755 A 195.425 0.441667
24 Kentucky 196.025 195.05 195.49 195.685 A 195.625 -0.09167
25 Iowa St 195.975 194.9 195.275 195.49 A 195.4167 -0.05
26 ASU 195.875 194.6 195.145 195.4 A 194.9833 0.566667
27 Kent St 196.4 193.65 195.085 195.635 A 194.625 1.358333
28 Iowa 195.875 195.075 194.995 195.155 H 194.975 0.333333
29 WVU 195.775 194.225 194.955 195.265 A 194.6417 0.9
30 UIC 195.25 194.35 194.865 195.045 H 194.9917 -0.125
31 MSU 195.55 194.175 194.84 195.115 A 194.925 0.066667
32 UNH 195.8 193.2 194.715 195.235 A 194.1167 1.558333
33 San Jose St 195.85 194.3 194.69 195 A 194.5583 0.65
34 BYU 195.525 194.45 194.685 DONE   195.075 -0.5
35 Maryland 195.55 194.25 194.645 194.905 A 194.8917 -0.19167
36 UNC 195.75 193.125 194.525 195.05 A 194.3167 0.825
37 WMU 195.3 193.925 194.375 194.65 A 194.5417 -0.025
38 CMU 195.525 193.325 194.33 194.77 A 194.525 0.008333
39 Pittsburgh 195.075 194.05 194.295 194.5 H 194.2917 0.266667
40 Bridgeport 196.35 193.525 194.26 194.825 A 194.6083 0
41 SUU 195.875 193.7 194.2 194.635 A 194.4167 0.125

Note:  Using the tiebreaker, LSU is currently ahead of Oregon State.

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