OU and LSU Still Lead the Way
OU and LSU lead the way as the top two teams in the nation, and will battle it out for #1 this weekend. LSU, although ranked number #2, has defeated OU once this season and is carrying a relatively low 197.3 in their NQS*. However, they have experienced some injuries that have tested their depth. Both squads head into the post-season in a good position to challenge all the way to the National final. Florida was on the path challenge, but recent injuries have impacted their depth, but their continued progress could also close the gap. A key event could be the vault, an event where the Sooners struggled in 2024 and where LSU is beginning to excel.
Injuries Have Played a Big Role
Injuries are always part of the sport, but unfortunately this season we've had a rash of injuries that have impacted a number of athletes and a number of teams. Some teams that started off very strongly, like Auburn, Ohio State and Penn State, have been hit by injury. Some others have been plagued from the start with injuries, and some have lost over 40% of their roster. On a positive note, others are starting to get people back into lineups, like Utah and frosh star Avery Neff. Neff returned to the AA last weekend, after a unexpectedly rapid recovery from her dual ankle injury suffered earlier in the season. Among the major injuries that impacted teams, we've seen losses like Katelyn Jong and Olivia Hollingsworth at Auburn, Lauren Williams at Arkansas, Sloane Blakely at Florida, JerQuavia Henderson at Iowa, Chase Brock and Olivia Dunne at LSU, Lucy Stanhope and Molly Peterson at Nebraska, Payton Harris at Ohio State, Ava Piedrahita, Amana Herring and Jessica Johnson at PSU, Jaedyn Rucker and Poppy Stickler at Utah, Lana Navarro at Washington and a host of other injuries (disclosed or not) on these teams and many others across the country.
Tight Race for Final Spots
A very tight race is evolving for the Top 36 teams that qualify to Regionals. Within that group, there is a further battle for the Top 28 or so sports. Roughly the Top 28 teams can avoid being selected for a play-in round. This is a critical extra night of competition that all the Regional qualifiers want to avoid. (The NCAA does not strictly take the Top 28 by ranking due to geographical considerations). The top 28 still remains open,with a large number of teams within a tightly packed group.
Just 0.21 points separates #34 CMU to #40 Ball State. Within that group, #35 Towson, #36 GWU and #38 WVU all have two meets this weekend, but #37 Washington and #38 WVU both have scores below 195 they have the opportunity to drop (as do #39 and #40). We could see a bunch of shuffling throughout the Top 36, depending on how the teams fare their weekend.
There is also a tight race in the SEC, as only the top 8 teams qualify for the SEC Championships.
Scoring Variation and the SCORE Board
The season started with a grand experiment called the SCORE Board. Unfortunately, a mix of optimism and consternation greeted the new program. This system of independent evaluation was intended to give feedback and some level of accountability to judging at the NCAA level. Unfortunately, the program has been made optional and has been reduced in impact. Since the first month of the seasonm where we saw stricter evaluation top to bottom in the NCAA, some panels have begun loosening up. Teams are seeing a strong improvement in their scores, with new program records and career highs, especially in routines with more opportunities to deduct. While some decry the reduction in the number of 10s awarded, the more impactful issue has always been the lack of separation in routines that should have been scoring less than 9.7. In January, many of these routines were being given 9.4s to 9.6s, an uncomfortable. Whether a routine should be a 9.95 or a 10 was ultimately less impactful to the team results than the routines that were getting 9.85s when they deserved 9.7s. Heading into Week 11, things have loosened up, but unequally. You could argue that we've now ended up with scoring variation at least as wide as last season.
Missed Falls and Other Impossible Scores
So it should come as no surprise in that we saw our first missed fall of the season, by one judge, on balance beam. The gymnast in this case missed her acro series and jumped off the beam. After a short period to collect her thoughts, she resumed. Somehow, one judge gave her a 9.55. The required deduction for a fall is 0.5. This was not the case where a gymnast fell on the BB but covered it up, or jumped off and on super quickly. She fell and was five feet away from the apparatus, and took her time to remount. Nor was this simply a missed (or ambiguous) out of bounds deductiion, of a missed broken connection. Missing from this incident was a lack of social media posts or press conference quotes decrying the situation.
Freeze!
On March 1st, the NCAA released a new clarification regarding the finish position on all four events. It is clear that judges, coaches and athletes are still struggling at times with this deduction. The March 1st clarification (see below) addressed a further clarification that the gymnast must be completely still in her finishing position, with no head movement. The finishing pose is with legs straight, not bent, and arms overhead (above head height). She must also finish the pose in the same direction as her intended landing (not to the side). The hand position is optional, as long as it is frozen. Here's the except:
Some gymnasts are holding instead their landing position, and the standing up to salute without holding the required one second. Heads are being throw back, fists being pumped, and turns are being added all before the required 1 second hold. And since the heals must be joined together after landing, some gymnasts are compounding their deductions by not doing either. There is an easy 0.05 to 0.1 being lost in some routines. You could disagree with the rule, but the enforcement needs to be uniform.
Construction Trends
Major NCAA v. House Settlement Milestone in April
On April 7th, the judge in the House, et al vs. NCAA case is going to rule on the final settlement of that particular case. Over 3,400 athletes (out of 390,000 eligible plaintiffs) have opted out of the settlement and 73 formal objections have been lodged. The judge is expected to approved the final settlement, with potentially a few modifications. Under scrutiny are the new roster caps, in lieu of scholarship caps per school. As the way they are structured now, opportunities for athletes may get diminished under the current proposal. In a recent example, Cal Poly announced the termination of their men's and women's swimming program, citing the House Settlement. In contrast, after initially saying it would be cutting scholarships, Ohio State reversed course in November and said it would retain all sports and current scholarships, including Men's Gymnastics.
Of course, this will not be the end of litigation within the NCAA. Numerous other cases are still moving through the court system, and new court cases will be filed. Recently, the Federal government, under the latest Administration, has also shifted their stance on the settlement. They have noted that the media payments to athletes do not have to comply with proportionality under Title IX. While not unexpected, it will reaffirm that nearly all of the money will flow to Men's football and basketball. Read more from Sports Illustrated here: LINK
Note: The National Qualifying Score, or NQS, is calculated by taking a teams top three "away" scores, their next three highest scores, dropping the high, and averaging the rest.